Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of another exciting weekend of Premier League action.
It's not about style now for Aston Villa, it's about getting over the line.
With Premier League fixtures running out, Villa know that any kind of win here takes them a big step closer to locking in Champions League football for next season. Performances become secondary at this stage, it's all about outcome.
That mindset is important when assessing how this game might play out against Burnley.
Villa aren't a team that tend to blow sides away regularly anyway. In fact, 12 of their 17 league wins this season have come by a one-goal margin. That tells you everything about how they manage matches when they get in front.
So while the temptation might be to just back Villa to win at 4/7 with Sky Bet, the smarter angle is to lean into this one-goal margin trend and back it to land again at 5/2.
Crystal Palace's issues defending set-pieces have become impossible to ignore. They've shipped 17 goals from dead-ball situations in the Premier League this season - only Bournemouth, with 19, have conceded more.
So, when assessing Everton's routes to goal here, the focus immediately shifts towards the two centre-backs. Splitting stakes on Michael Keane to score first at 16/1 with Sky Bet and James Tarkowski to score first at 25/1 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal in what could be a bruising, low-margin encounter.
Keane, in particular, is always a major threat. His 1.1 shots per game average is an eye-catching figure for a central defender and highlights just how involved he becomes when Everton load the box from corners and wide free-kicks. Tarkowski isn't far behind at 0.9 shots per game either and often attacks the first-contact zones aggressively.
There are certain players whose importance goes way beyond the eye test and Bruno Guimaraes falls firmly into that category for Newcastle.
The numbers around him scream about his importance.
Since the start of last season, Newcastle have won just 18 per cent of their Premier League matches without Guimaraes in the side. With him? That figure rockets to 50 per cent.
His return was obvious in the victory over Brighton last week where he completely dictated the rhythm of the game. Newcastle suddenly looked like themselves again - aggressive in the press, sharper in transition and far calmer when building attacks through midfield.
He was the driving force behind everything good they produced.
That makes Newcastle on the draw no bet market at 10/11 with Sky Bet look a smart angle against a Nottingham Forest side that could be running on fumes.
Arsenal are now trading around 1/5 with Sky Bet to get the job done in the Premier League title race and after what's been a proper emotional rollercoaster of a season, they've put themselves in a position where it's theirs to lose - again.
A trip to West Ham in their predicament is exactly the kind of setting where the game can become tight, scrappy and decided by small margins rather than free-flowing football. One goal may settle it and Viktor Gyokeres could be the man to get it.
He is absolutely flying. He's the top-scoring Premier League striker over the last three months with nine in his last 12 league appearances. But it's not just the numbers. There's a real edge to his game right now. The physicality, the movement, the way he's engaging defenders. He's reminding me of Diego Costa.
Combative, aggressive and a constant problem for his marker. The 9/2 on him scoring the opening goal is an angle to consider.
Tottenham's performance at Aston Villa didn't receive the credit it deserved.
Yes, Villa were poor. Yes, they looked miles off their usual levels. But what Spurs produced in that environment, under that pressure, was seriously impressive.
For a team with confidence on the floor and relegation danger hanging over them, to go to Villa Park and execute Roberto De Zerbi's demanding style with that level of bravery and aggression was extraordinary.
The control they established was the real eye-opener.
Villa didn't register a shot until the 61st minute and had just one touch in the Spurs penalty area before then. That's not smash-and-grab football or chaotic counter-attacking. That's complete territorial domination - the kind of control usually associated with Manchester City or Arsenal when they're at their suffocating best.
If they reproduce anything close to that level here, Leeds could get overwhelmed quickly.
The market certainly expects another strong showing with Spurs available at 4/5 with Sky Bet and it's difficult to argue against that price if the psychological corner has genuinely been turned.
